Monday, January 10, 2011

Halfway Mark Future Outlook

Halfway through the 2010-2011 season it is hard to already peg the Oilers in last place. I am still holding out hope that they make a better half for themselves and finish somewhere 9-12 in the West.


Trade Deadline:

The Oilers will and have to be sellers. What you really have to do is, you have to sit down with Penner and Hemsky and get a feeling of where their heads are at for the future of their tenure with the club. Sadly and with deep regret, I believe that Hemsky is the odd man out. Penner has turned into a great voice in the dressing room and we need his big body, players like him are very hard to come by. As for Hemsky, he could probably fetch us the most on the trade market, and Hall and Eberle on the wings make him more expendable.

As far as the rest of the team goes, JF Jacques has to go, probably via waivers (the Oilers gave him his one year chance and he has flunked). One of either Steve MaCintyre or Zach Stortini will be shipped out, or placed on waivers. I think the idea of trading Kurtis Foster to Montreal is golden, they would love him in hab-land. Vandermeer could also get you a 3rd or 4th round pick from a playoff team looking for defensive depth.

At the Draft:

If the Oilers are picking in the the top ten, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they traded their pick. Its a weaker draft then most and they could pick up a high end defensman or a top line face off wizard centerman. Of course they would have to package that pick with a roster player to make it that much juicier, so I could see Cogliano or Brule being thrown in for extra value. I could see them trading for Brad Richards and signing him.

As far as other moves at the draft, probably not much, if not trading more unusable pieces currently on the team for depth draft picks. Its all about building up your farm system to pump out solid NHLers.

Free Agency:

Ryan Jones will be priority numero uno. By seasons end he will be in the mid teens for goals, so signing him in around the $1.5 million mark should be sufficient. The Oilers, like last summer, probably wont go after any of the real big fish, but will look to add some solid depth guys. Curtis Glencross, Scottie Upshall, and Ben Eager could be some good targets. Our defense will need some pieces, and as I don't see Tambellini going after big names like Markov or Kaberle, some good moves could be made with names like Eric Brewer, Ed Jovanovski, Jan Hejda, Christian Ehrhoff, and Chris Phillips floating around.

The Souray Ordeal:

Once the season has finished and rosters reset, the Oilers will recall Sheldon Souray, without him having to go thru re-entry waivers. After that, it will be an all out SALE. No reasonable offer refused....And most likely no one will bite. So then with only One year left on his contract, the Oilers might just look at buying him out, or once again, burying him in the minors for one more season. Either way, Sheldon Souray will never be seen in Oilers silks ever again. Which most of us already knew.

My 2011-2012 Lineup:

Taylor Hall           Brad Richards     Jordan Eberle
Dustin Penner      Sam Gagner        Ales Hemsky
Curtis Glencross Shawn Horcoff    Magnus Paarjarvi
Ben Eager           Ryan O'Marra       Ryan Jones

Ryan Whitney Chris Phillips
Tom Gilbert    Teddy Peckham
Jeff Petry        Ladislav Smid

Nikolai Khabiboulin
Devan Dubnyk

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

At the Quartermark

We have now reached the NHL's quarter mark. For most teams, this is a fairly good time to judge what the rest of the season may look like. There are still 60 games left to the season though, so truly anything could occur. There already have been a couple surprises in both conferences, and a couple disappointments. In the East Washington, Philadelphia, and Montreal lead, whilst in the West it is Detroit, L.A., and Colorado leading. Montreal and Colorado have both surprised most, as both were pegged to be in the playoffs, not leading their divisions. For Montreal, beating out the likes of the Bruins and Sen's has been impressive. The Avalanche's have beaten out a highly touted Canucks squad, in a tough division as it is. The NHL's current basement dwellers include the Flames, Devils, Oilers, and Islanders. For the Flames and Devils, the season thus far has been one massive disappointment. After some major off season acquisitions, both squads have floundered. Big free agent signings; Olli Jokinen and Ilya Kovalchuk have been just plain atrocious. As for the Oilers and Islanders, its mostly understandable as to where they sit in the standings, being that both are in full rebuild.

Striking Oil?

It has been a rough start for the young Oilers squad. Going just 5-10-4 in their first 19 games. The kids have been decent, but nothing out of this world. Jordan Eberle has stayed fairly consistent, with 12 points so far, though he hasn't scored in 6-7 games. Taylor Hall has had a slow start, but seems to be finding his game. On any given night he can literally take over. He has to be better in his own end, but he is coming along. MPS has been the biggest disappointment thus far. He has shown some difficulty in getting used to the smaller rink and North American style of play. It shouldn't be too long before he gets comfortable and starts to put some points on the board. As for the rest of the team, Ales Hemsky has really turned his game up a notch lately, with 4 of his 15 points coming in the last 2 games. Ryan Whitney has been a stud for the Oil on the back end, though he doesn't have a goal yet, he leads the team in points with 17 assists. On the other side of things, the recent healthy scratch, Gilbert Brule, has struggled mightily, so has Andrew Cogliano. Together the pair have amassed a measly 3 goals, 3 assists, and are a minus 18. Just plain brutal. Not only that, but the Oilers defense, with the exception of Whitney and Theo Peckham, have are a combined minus 27. (Peckham and Whitney are the only "plus" defensmen, being plus 2 each). Shawn Horcoff and Dustin Penner have each been decent, but maybe not as effective as the Oilers need them to be. With their recent efforts and finally a win against the Ducks, it looks like the Oilers might finally have worked out, at least, some issues. Light at the end of the tunnel? Wait and see....


Burning Out

My my, how the mighty have fallen. As I eluded to in my last post, the Calgary Flames have really begun to struggle. So monumental are the Flames struggles that they now find themselves in 26th place for the whole NHL. That's 14th in the West, just 3 points of the Oilers, who even now have a game in hand. Before Christmas hits, we may very well see a last place Flames team, in the West anyways (sorry Islanders but apparently even your broadcasters are tired of watching). It is absolutely nuts to think of how far the Flames have fallen, or may fall. General manager Darryl Sutter is on the very cusp of losing his job, the writing is being written on the wall as we speak. There is no way, in this world, that he will survive this. Bringing in Alex Tanguay and Olli Jokinen, both for a second time, is proving to be one giant epic fail. As for the Phanuef trade, we clearly know who won out.... Ian White has already been traded to the 'Canes, while Matt Stajan has only one goal in 18 games. Niklas Hagman has just 11 points in 20 games. Lets not even talk about the Steve Staios trade, only a giant thank you is in order from all Oilers fans. Martin Marincin should turn into 10 times the defensman Staios ever was. The future isn't much brighter in cow town either. Mikael Backlund has struggled to compete in the NHL, with only 5 points, the Flames highest touted rookie isn't panning out all too well.


50 in 50?

That's the question being asked around the league. Steve Stamkos, as of tonight, now has 20 goals in 21 games. Can he do 50 in 50 or less? If he keeps the pace he is on right now, its highly likely. Will he? Considering the ebb and flow of the NHL, one would have to go with no. Players get hot, then they go cold, they score in bunches, then go stagnant for a while. Sure I believe Stamkos will hit 60, maybe even 70 goals (which hasn't been done since Teemu Selanne/Alexander Mogilny circa 1992-1993), but posting 50 in 50? Highly unlikely. It sure will be fun to see how close he can get. I also thought it might be cool to see if we can mathematically try to predict what could unfold. Through the first 21 games, Stamkos has registered a goal in 14 of those 21 games. He has 4 games in which he has scored 2 or more. He has two hat tricks. So two 2 goal games, and two 3 goal games. So considering he has another 29 games till 50, we can pace him for 3 more hat tricks, and 3 more 2 goal games (ya I know, 5 hat tricks in the first 50 games of the season, highly unlikely). That puts him at 35 goals. After that he had ten 1 goal games. So that would put him on pace for another 14 goals (scoring only 1 goal in 48% of his games). All that said, that only puts him at........49 goals in 50 games!! The crazy thing is, if he were to keep his pace, he would end the season with a whopping 79 goals!! That includes a season total of 8 hat tricks, 16 multi-goal games, and registering at least 1 goal in 55 of 82 games.  It would be the highest single season goal total since Brett Hull registered 86 goals in 1990-1991.

Favorite Teemu moment:


Favorite "Stammer" moment:


GO OILERS!!

-Sporer

Friday, November 19, 2010

A New Era in Blogging

*Hands clapping, fans whistling, cheers reigning down*

*Takes a bow, shakes some hands, kisses a few babies*

Yes, yes. One sexy son-of-a-bitch is about to enter the room… Smith is back! And he’s got more opinions, advice and anecdotes than before! Let’s dive right in…

Sporer wrote about, ‘how to re-build a franchise’… And, I couldn’t agree more with the notion that you need to draft well; however, let’s not confuse this with Pittsburgh and Washington. When you finish dead last, like Washington, and Ovechkin is the clear-choice, franchise-defining once-in-a-decade-player, it doesn’t take rocket science to know who to draft (they also got Mike Green in that same first round). As for Pittsburgh, let’s remember, they didn’t even PLAY A SEASON to get Crosby… They won the Lockout Lottery. Again, it doesn’t take a genius to draft ‘The Next One’. And if you look at their next 3 years, they drafted: Jordan Staal #2 (common, he’s a 3rd line checker), Angelo Esposito (Sporer’s favorite Quebecor) & in 2008, they didn’t have a 1st round pick. Ovi & Crosby are franchise changers, players who you can build your team around and even build A LEAGUE around; Taylor Hall is not in the same class as those two. So, I don’t think those are the franchises we need to be compared too.

In fact, I don’t think we should be compared to any franchise! Because, I DON’T THINK WE ARE RE-BUILDING PROPERLY! Off the top of my head, the three young teams what come to mind, that re-built correctly are: Chicago, LA & St Louis. Why? Because, they drafted from the back-end!!! Look at the past 10 champions & their blue line (aside from Carolina & TB): Lidstrom, Pronger, Neidermayer, Gonchar, Keith, Stevens, Bourque, Blake, Foote, and Rafalski. Does Edmonton have any of those players now? DO THEY HAVE ANY IN THEIR FARM SYSTEM?! No.

Chicago drafted: Seabrooke, Keith & Barker (traded to MIN for cap issues).

LA drafted: Hickey, Doughty, Toubert, Derek Forbert (#15 in 2010) & traded for Jack Johnson.

St Louis drafted: Erik Johnson, Pietrangelo, Rundblad & already had success with Barrett Jackman winning the Calder as a Dman.

Where is Edmonton’s stock-piling of Dmen; and, not just ‘Dmen’, but 1st-round-quality-NHL-Dmen? There is none; none on the team and none in the system and none coming through the pipe line… It’s safe to say that Edmonton has completely ignored their back-end. Chicago, LA & St Louis are all set for 10 years and are already top contenders in the West (say thank you to Montreal for dropping a gem into your lap, St Louis). To make things even worse, I don’t even see an end in sight… in a 2 year span (2011-13), Edmonton is going to have need to re-sign Gagner, Cogliano, Eberle, MPS, Hall, Omark, Penner, Hemsky, Brule and their entire 4th line. I’m sure you can make the numbers fit because, you don’t want to lose any of those forwards (minus Cogliano), but where is the money for the Dmen?! How can you re-sign everyone (at a pay INCREASE) and still sign talent for the defense?! You can’t. Edmonton is going to have to make some tough choices in the future. And we haven’t even discussed their goaltending needs (which, to rub salt in the wounds, LA drafted Quick & Bernier, STL signed Halak & CHI has already won a cup, so they’re off the hook). It just adds to the old saying… Offence wins games, defense wins championships.

Now, on to other NHL topics…

Sean Avery. Wow. Seriously, the guy continues to amaze me. I wonder if, you took an internal poll of NHL players, how many would want him out of the league? Why doesn’t someone just two-hand him on the wrists or skate over his Achilles? Take the 5-game suspension and be known as the ‘The Guy Who Got Rid of Avery’. I wonder if, you took an internal poll of NHL players, how many would be against that? And how many would shake the hand of the man responsible? I’m just sayin’…

Steven Stamkos. Wow. I gotta say, I did not think that this was a guy who could carry a team on his back because, he didn’t need too with Vinny & Marty there, but is he proving the world wrong. Snubbed for 2010, the guy is pissed and he’s taking his anger out on every goalie in the league. The guy is on pace for 145+points.

Since the shoot-out, there are only 2 active players to have a 100% scoring average and take more then one shot. Answer is at the bottom. Also, Edmonton, as a team, is 4th all-time with 80 shoot-out goals scored. That’s pretty impressive, in the clutch.

NHL.com listed its Top 10 Trades of All-Time
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=380611

It also listed its all-time Greatest 6 players (by position)
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=384554

Give me Hasek from 1994-1999 over Roy & Brodeur any day, any series, any period, any event.

Hall of Fame 2011 cases include: Dave Andrychuk, Tom Barrasso, Pavel Bure, Doug Gilmour, Eric Lindros, Kevin Lowe, Sergei Makarov, Joe Nieuwendyk, Adam Oates & Mike Richter. I’m going to go with…

1. Nieuwendyk – 3 rings with 3 different teams

2. Bure – 50 goals every year

3. Barrasso – 2 cups with Mario & Co.

4. Richter – 1994 Cup & 1996 World Cup upset

5. Makarov – Russian phenom

6. Lindros – changed two franchises (was traded for Forsberg)

7. Oates – best set-up man, ever?

8. Andrychuk – all-time leader in PPG

9. Gilmour – If Don Cherry could vote 1,000,000 times, Gilmour would get in no problem

10. Lowe – 5 cups in EDM & 1 in NYR, rode on Gretz’ & Mess’s back for years…

Should Calgary trade Iginla?

One word if you do: Ballsy. Iggy is a stud: comes out for Team Canada when he can, is always good for 30 goals & 75pts, hes a leader, he drops the gloves and doesn’t break his hand (Souray) and he’s a good guy. This seems more like an emergency button the Sutter’s would push when their backs are up against a wall and there is nothing else they can do, so they push the Iginla button and blow up the whole thing. The rumor going around was: Iginla to LA for Braydon Schenn & a high pick. Trading him within the West means, you have to play him 4 times a year, ballsy. It’s an interesting debate as to whether you trade him or not. He’s your franchise guy and seeing what trading your franchise guy can do to a team, look no further then the Oil. Smyth (face of the franchise) & Pronger (the actual franchise player) were essentially traded for: Nielson (playing in the KHL), O’Marra (played 3 NHL games), Lupul (who turned into O’Sullivan, who signed in Carolina), Smid, Plante (4 NHL games), Nash (0 NHL games) & Eberle (4th in rookie scoring, but 5th last with a -6). It’s took early to tell with Eberle, but we basically got a bunch of AHL players & a 5th Dman.

So, what did we learn? Make sure you’re getting fair value for Iggy. As for my own opinion, I don’t think you can trade Iginla. If the Sutter’s do trade him, it’s only to save their jobs, and I’m sure the media and fans would have their heads served up on a silver platter.

More trivia: only two former Hartford Whalers for currently still playing in the NHL. I didn’t know either of them played for Hartford. Answer at the bottom.

All Star voting is in full swing, and it got me thinking… Who is Edmonton’s all star? I guess its Ryan Whitney by default… It’s like picking, the best of the worst. At least the Isles have Tavares, sheesh.

And you know what? All this talk about rebuilding… Detroit doesn’t rebuild, they reload. Blam. No veteran goaltending? No problem! Meet Jimmy Howard, he has them 1st in the West. NIk Lidstrom is 40? No worries, they have Jon Ericsson & Nik Kronwall, not to mention their top 2 prospects are also Dmen.

Trivia Answer #1 – Mike Santorelli, FLA (3 for 3) & Logan Couture SJS (2 for 2)

Trivia Answer #2 – Chris Pronger & Jean-Sebastien Giguere.

Cheers.
-Smith