Stanley Cup Finals

Welcome to paradise. A dream NHL playoffs is about to come to commence, in what should be one of the more exciting finals in a long time.

We’ve had just about everything in this year’s addition: Crosby vs. Ovechkin in a 7-game thriller, the President Trophy winners bounced (again) in Round 1, the 100-year Montreal celebration coming to a crashing 4-game sweep at the hands of the rival Bruins. And who could forget the improbable Cardiac ‘Canes against New Jersey, making Marty Brodeur look less then human, or the class(less) John Torotrella’s water-bottle/fan outburst?

And of course, we can’t forget about the 2010 debate that changed (almost) daily:

It’s Brodeur’s job to lose…
Ok, so Brodeur crapped the bed against Carolina, so Luongo MUST be the new #1!
Ok, so Bobby Lu crapped the bed against Chicago, so Cam Ward MUST be the new #1!
Ok, so Cam Ward crapped the bed against Pittsburgh, so Fleury MUST be the new #1…
Ok, Fleury as (arguably) the #1, but (circa last season) Price is for sure the #3…
Ok, so Price crapped the bed against Carolina, so Steve Mason MUST be the new #3!
Ok, so Mason crapped the bed against Detroit, so Cam Ward MUST be the new #3!
Ok, so Ward (again) crapped the bed against Pittsburgh, so Chris Osgood SURELY should be the new #3…

The debate will continue to rage on and on (could you seriously imagine Fleury or Osgood not on 2010 if they win this year?) until the selection camp is finalized, so lets focus on the here-and-now.

It really has been a playoffs for the ages, and it all comes together to form a marketing cash-cow for the NHL. Detroit and Pittsburgh are set to square off and with all the analysts giving their 2 cents, I thought I should share mine as well…

OFFENSE

It’s (basically) 9 vs. 2. While Malkin and Crosby sit 1-2 in playoff scoring (28 points apiece), they just can’t match the depth of the Red Wings… I like the way this analyst put it… ‘Datsyuk goes down? No problem -- here's Valtteri Filppula, who scored three points in Game 4 against the Hawks. Kris Draper sidelined? In steps minor leaguer Darren Helm, the human Energizer Bunny, to lead the team in hits and pick up the occasional OT winner. The Pens may have the Dynamic Duo, but the Wings dress the Deep Dozen ... and that depth has a way of paying off in a long series’.

And that doesn’t even include that Hossa only has been shutout in 13 of the 16 games (3 2-goal efforts) or Datsyuk and Holmstrom having only 3 goals between them, just wait till the Big Red Machine is clicking on ALL cylinders.

Throw in the fact that Fleury only has a .906 S% and Detroit averages, roughly, 40 shots per game… Detroit is about guaranteed 3.75 GF/game.

I’m not discounting Pittsburgh's depth either: Guerin, Kunitz, Fedotenko, Talbot, Cooke, Kennedy and Staal, but I would much rather have Cleary, Helm, Franzen, Hudler, Samuelsson, Filppula, Hossa and Holmstrom.

Edge: Detroit

DEFENSE

You know, Kris Letang has always flown under the radar for me and I'm finally starting to take notice that, this kid, could be a top pairing guy. Gonchar is still battling injuries, but it hasn’t slowed his play at all. Mark Eaton has been a HUGE contributor these playoffs with 4 goals and a +10 rating; however: Boucher, Gill, Orpik, Scuderi and Goligoski have combined for only 2 goals. Obviously offense isn’t their #1 priority (see: containing Zetterberg, Franzen, Hossa, etc…), but at some point, they need to take the load off of Gonchar and Letang.

Malkin, Crosby meet Lidstrom. Only Brett Lebda is playing less then 20 minutes per game. So, prepare yourself for a steady dose of: Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall, Stuart and Ericsson (bring dubbed as the ‘new’ Lidstrom). Even with Lidstrom’s health issues, I would still want an 80% Lidstrom over 95% of the guys out there. While only contributing 10 goals between the backend (Chelios and Meech included), they have ridiculous 46 points between the top 6 and a +42 rating. This group is big, strong, smart, slick, disciplined and experienced.

Edge: Detroit.

GOALTENDING

This was the most difficult part for me to decide… So let’s just go down the list…

Osgood – 2.06 GAA
Fleury – 2.62 GAA

Osgood – .925 S%
Fleury – .906 S%

Osgood – 1 SO
Fleury – 0 SO

Osgood – 4 loses
Fleury – 5 loses

Osgood – 3 Stanley Cups
Fleury – 0 Stanley Cups

BUT, Fleury is, possibly, the most flexible/agile goalie in the NHL and his explosive nature shouldn’t be so easily discounted. Fleury is the type of goalie that can steal you a game and an entire series, Osgood doesn’t have that same potential, but he doesn’t have too.

Edge: Osgood by a hair (I'm sick of always betting against him and losing).

SPECIAL TEAMS

Detroit has had 10 different players score on the PP, while Pittsburgh has failed to get PP contributions from: Kunitz, Fedotenko, Staal, Sykora and Satan. The Winged Wheel is operating at an astronomical 25.7%, but the Pens aren’t far behind at 19.3%, it’s the PK where the advantages come in…

Pittsburgh’s PK has been good (not great) at 83.6%, Detroit’s has been atrocious. Operating 3rd last in the playoffs at 73.7%, this is the biggest area of concern for Coach Babcock. A horrendous PK% + A Motivated Crosby/Malkin = Trouble.

Edge: Pittsburgh.

COACHES

Should I even bother?

Mike Babcock has: 4 consecutive division titles, averages less then 23 losses over his career, averages 117 points per season and is the defending Cup Champion.

Dan Bylsma has: 25 National Hockey League Games as experience.

Edge: Detroit in a landslide.

INTANGIBLES

Pittsburgh has the benefit of the ‘white out’. Not to mention, the renewed atmosphere surrounding the franchise that was once on its way to, well, anywhere that would take them. They have a motivated Crosby who, ‘never wants to feel this feeling again’ (in regards to losing in the cup finals, last year) and everyone is another year older and another younger experienced.

It’s called Hockeytown, U.S.A. for a reason people…

Edge: Detroit.

SPOTLIGHT

‘There are bigger stars in this series, but no bigger story’. Hossa left the Igloo in search of a Stanley Cup. He took less money, less years and more uncertainty in order to have a chance right now to win it all. Everyone in the hockey world praised his unselfish nature, except, of course, the Penguins' faithful who took his "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" decision as a slap in the face.

PREDICTION

Boys, I think this series could be one for the ages. I hope Datsyuk is ready to go for Game 2 (if Game 1 seems like a stretch) as then no one can use any excuses when they lose. Is this the dawn of the Crosby era? Does Osgood finally do enough to stick it to his critics? Will Hossa’s decision prove to be the right choice or a costly mistake? Can Fleury redeem himself from his World Jr. catastrophe and prove he’s a major player for 2010? Is this Chelios’ and Lidstrom’s swan song? The storylines write themselves, but the answers are written on the ice.

As much as I would love for Malkin to fully solidify himself as the best player on the planet and Fleury win one (who doesn’t like watching his style of play?), I think I would rather see Crosby slumped down in a corner, in tears. Lemieux didn’t capture Lord Stanley until his 7th season, Gretzky didn’t win one until his 5th season and Crosby is only in his 4th.

For me, it was, it is and it always will be an easy choice. Defense wins championships. Experience wins championships. Depth wins championships.

Detroit in 6.

Cheers.
- Smith

p.s. Hypothetically, if Osgood does win his 4th cup (3rd as a starter) and he’s 10th all-time in NHL wins and #1 in Detroit’s storied history in wins… Does that make him a HOFer? I definitely think it thrusts him into the debate, no questions asked.