Oiler Trade Talk

So, with Trade Deadline Day just around the corner, and coupled with Sporer's recent mood of Oiler bashing, I thought I would take a look at the Oilers and decide who is 'trade bait' and who is 'safe at home'. Mind you, these are only my opinions and are not based on any rumors or discussions.

Let's start by placing the players into 6 distinct categories: Untouchables, Contracts, Under Acheivers, No Value, Trade Chips and Prospects.

Untouchables.
This is pretty self-explanatory. Personally, I didn't think the Oilers had one at the beginning of the year, but I think I've come up with four...

Hemsky – Assuming this year is no fluke, Hemsky has finally come into his own.
Souray – He's reverted back to his Montreal form.
MacIntyre – Remember Big George and how much we regret letting him go? Same situation here.
Deslauriers – Roli's on his last legs, the torch will soon be his...

Contracts.
These are players who are basically un-tradeable because they are grossly over-paid and grossly under-performing.

Horcoff – He makes 7 mil, 6.5 mil, 6.5 mil and 6 mil over the next 4 years. 60 points doesn't cut it.
Penner – Over the past 2 years, we've paid him 8.5 mil for 34 goals. It's 3 more years of this too...
Pisani – His playoff glory is almost 3 years old, 2.5 mil was good then... It's not now.
Visnovsky – He's not a bad player, but 7 mil for a D whose last 3 years pts have declined is no good.
Staios – I understand he has the intangibles, but 3 mil should buy you more then 2 goals and a -3.

Under Achievers.
I think this might be the category with the longest list of laundry, but then I decided to make two more categories to space it out a little more.

Cole – 2006: 30 goals, 2007: 29 goals, 2008: 22 goals, 2009: 12 goals. Notice the pattern of decline...
Nilsson – Last year: 41pts, +8. This year: 17pts, -5.
Smid – 9th overall ('04 draft) should get us more then 3goals in 177 career games.
Brule – 6th overall ('05 draft) should get us more then 35pts in 157 career games.
Pouliot – Sid the Kid's partner had 268pts in 205games in junior. In the NHL: 33pts in 126 games.

No Value.
These are guys are who ride the 4th line and, when you deal them away, you don't expect anything of substance or value in return. These names are not often involved in superstar-blockbuster deals.

Stortini – He's not even trade bait, he's waivers bait.
Brodziak – 4th liner averages 11 minutes, 6 seconds on the PP and, only 50% on the draw... per game.
Reddox – Here's his stat line: 12 blocked shots, 5 giveaways, 4 takeaways, 0.9 shots/game. Brutal.

Trade Chips.
With all of the negativity surrounding the Oilers, I was amazed to find how many decent trading cards they actually held. Not all of them are of the superstar or young talented potential, but they do possess a few veterans who are having great years and could help a team in the grueling playoff run. Let's go into a little more detail with these guys...

Gilbert – He was a steal in the Tommy Salo deal and is now on pace for 40+ points, which justifies his 3.5 mil contract for this season and next, and hopefully his numbers only improve for when the big 5.5 mil-a-year kicks in. He's entering the prime of his career (he's only 25) and could be a top-2 Dman for just about any team.
Cogliano – 45pts last year, 27pts already this year and he's only 21 years old. He practically sells himself. He plays a great 2-way game, can skate like the wind and rarely takes a penalty (only 6 all year).
Grebeshkov – He's quietly on pace for a 40+ point year and averages over 20 minutes per game. Those numbers lead me to believe that he is shouldering a lot more responsibility this year and has been counted on heavily in key situations during 5-on-5 play. Not to mention, he's only 25 years old.
Moreau – He's not young, he doesn't score a lot of points, he's not a power-play specialist, but he has all the qualities of a veteran leader; someone willing to go into the corners and lay out the body. He's on pace for a career year in both goals & points and would surely add that playoff grit to any team seeking a long playoff run.
Gagner – Oh Sammy boy, how the mighty have fallen: 49 pts last year to 17 this year, 13 goals to 4, 16 powerplay points to 4; however, his potential is said to be limitless and that will be enough to draw offers for him. Not to mention he doesn't turn 20 until August.
Strudwick – Like Moreau, he doesn't have a lot of offer on the offensive end, but his intangibles, small salary and odd-man-out status in Edmonton could present a nice addition to a team looking for veteran leadership.
Roloson – If Edmonton takes a nose-dive before the deadline, Roli would be the perfect back-up. Not only does he have loads of experience, but he has the potential to get hot at the right time and present any goalie with a real challenge for playing time. He's also a UFA this off-season and fits the bill as a 'rental player' to a tee.

Prospects.
These are the guys who haven't 'proven themselves' at an NHL level, for one reason or another, yet have the potential to be key contributors. Edmonton's drafting record from the '90s and early '00s reads like this: Michel Riesen, Michael Henrich, Jani Rita, Alexei Mikhnov and Jessie Niinimaki. All busts. They have picked it up as of late with NHL-caliber players: Ales Hemsky, Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene. Buyer Beware: Is this group full of NHL busts or NHL potential?

TSN rates these prospects (in order) from the Oilers best to least and gave a very detailed description of each prospect; however, I'm no going to type all of it. Lucky for you guys, I'm excellent at condensing material that even Sporer will understand it.

1. Jordan Eberle – RW - 1st round, 22nd overall, 2008 draft (Regina Pats)
Possesses great eyes, clutch hands. Is improving his defensive game and rarely takes bad penalties.
2. Devan Dubnyk – G - 1st round, 14th overall, 2004 draft (Springfield Falcons)
Has strong numbers on a poor team and should challenge for the back-up role next season.
3. Robbie Schremp – C/RW - 1st round, 25th overall, 2004 draft (Springfield Falcons)
Offensive dynamo, excellent powerplay QB. Suited for the wing, lacks responsibility.
4. Riley Nash – C - 1st round, 21st overall, 2007 draft (Cornell Univ.)
Good defensive skills and can operate with the puck at high speed. Patience is needed for his growth.
5. Taylor Chorney – D - 2nd round, 36th overall, 2005 draft (Springfield Falcons)
Two-way skills with leadership written all over him. Undersized, but has great hockey sense.
6. Jeff Petry – D - 2nd round, 45th overall, 2006 draft (Michigan St. Univ.)
Has a rocket of a shot, should bode well on the PP. Has lapses in his defensive game.
7. Alex Plante – D - 1st round, 15th overall, 2007 draft (Calgary Hitmen)
Unrefined prospect and needs plenty of time to develop, but has great potential.
8. Theo Peckham – D - 3rd round, 76th overall, 2006 draft (Springfield Falcons)
Nothing more then a 6 or 7 Dman, does not have puck skills, offensive instinct or hockey sense.
9. Ryan O'Marra – C - 1st round, 15th overall, 2005 draft (Springfield Falcons)
Defensive specialist, who could one day wear a letter in Edmonton.
10. Slava Trukhno – LW - 4th round, 120th overall, 2005 draft (Springfield Falcons)
Doesn't specialize in anything, but has plenty of tools in the tool box. Good character.
11. Brian Young – D - 5th round, 146th overall, 2004 draft (Springfield Falcons)
Basic stay-at-home Dman. Not expected to be more then an emergency #7 role in the NHL.

Three observations come to mind when I read this...
#1 – We have: 3 from '04, 3 from '05, 2 from '06, 2 from '07, but only 1 from '08, so... Is our drafting getting worse? Because to me, if it was getting better, we would have less prospects from later years and more from earlier years.
#2 – Either Jordan Elerbe is absolutely a steal at 22nd overall, or the rest of our picks from previous drafts (some with 4 years of AHL experience) are all busts. I just don't understand how O'Marra can be our 9th prospect when: he was taken 15th overall and has had 3 years of grooming, while Eberle is #1 with zero professional hockey experience.
#3 – Petry, Plante, Peckham and Young are basically all the same player: over 6 feet tall, good size, physical play. Matt Greene anyone?
With all of the hype on deadline day, when was the last time the Oilers pulled off a significant deal, Roloson in '06? And look where that got us, the same place we have been in since 1991... No Stanley Cups and counting. Ha. Either way, whether the Oilers are buying or selling, deadline day records have been falling every year since the lockout (in regards to # of players and # of trades) and with so many big name UFAs, this year should continue the trend.

Cheers.
-Smith

p.s. #1 – TSN had this to say about Liam Reddox... 'Reddox could one day be considered the steal of the 2004 draft'.

p.s. #2 – TSN is crazy.