Sunday, November 2, 2008

Hemsky Hogwash


The NHL is littered with non-NHL talent with the league expanding to 30 teams; however, it's not the quality of 4th line players I am concerned about, it's the talent level of the 1st line players. Lets examine 3 players... 3 right-wingers in particular... 3 players who have come from three very different markets and atmospheres... Marian Hossa, Marian Gaborik and Ales Hemsky.
I recently had a disagreement with a co-blogger about an imaginary dream he had had. I can't exactly remember what the dream entailed, nor most of the events of said dream; however, he did manage to leave me with a detail that haunts me to this day. That he would rather have Ales Hemsky on his team then the above-mentioned Hossa or Gaborik. He even went as far as to say that Hemsky was a 1st line RW on any NHL team (I think Calgary, Ottawa and TB would strongly disagree, just to name a few...). I let this thought stir in my head for a few minutes when i realized, I'm positive that my friend had no statistical evidence to backup his claim that Hemsky was the better RW of the three, so I thought to myself, 'Hey, let's go find some!' I will be using the ever-trusting NHL.com website for all of my statistical breakdowns.
All three players are in the prime of their career (Hossa - 29, Gaborik - 26, Hemsky - 25) with Hemsky the only player locked up after this season (Hossa and Gaborik are surely going to get more then the $5 million Hemsky is due in the final year of his deal, which is still an over pay). Now, lets examine my friends 'favorite RW', Ales Hemsky.
Hemsky has 273 PTS in 359 NHL games, which is an average of 62.36 PTS/82 games. Hemsky has never played 82 games and averages only 69.8 games over his first 5 NHL seasons. Not quite injury prone, but missing 15% of each season doesn't exactly help a struggling franchise crack into the top 8 in their own conference. Also over his 5 year career, Hemsky has never scored more then 20 goals (heck, even Alexandre Daigle had 26 one year), has a career shooting perc. of 10% and has never had a higher +/- then +5, his rookie year (every year since then has been a minus one). This all coming from a player who was drafted in the same year as NHL superstars Ilya Kovalchuk and Jason Spezza. If we look at Hemsky's playoff performances it doesnt get much brighter, 17 PTS in 30 games... a playoff career -8... and only 6 goals (only 2 playing 5-0n-5). But hey, sometimes Oiler pride runs deeper then statistical proof. Lets examine the next player on our list, Marian Gaborik.
Gaborik has played his entire NHL career in the trap-system of Minnesota. Surely his career numbers will reflect that, right? 415 PTS in 487 games, a 70 PT/82 game average, a career high of 42 goals (he plays in Minni doesn't he?!) and a +51 career number. Wow. Not to mention, 83 PTS in 07-08, a 5-goal game in 07, 2 All-Star appearance (and a fastest skater award to boot) and his playoffs... 22PTS in 29 games, 13% shooting and a +2 (not the highest number, but still a positive contribution for his team). So, despite playing in the NHL's most defensive-minded system, he was still able to out perform Hemsky in every statistical category... Still convinced Gaborik is a fluke and Hemsky is your man? Out comes Hossa...
Marian Hossa. Drafted behind the likes of Daniel Tkaczuk, Brad Ference and Jason Ward. Career numbers include 663 PTS in 712 games (a 77 PT/82 game average), a career high 45 goals, 100 PTs and a +92 (he played 3 seasons in Atlanta remember). Along with his 4 Allstar game appearances, Hossa carried Atlanta to their 1st playoff berth in franchise history. Speaking of playoffs, he has 61 PTS in 75 career games (including 26 PTS in 20 games for last years Penguins) and has only missed the playoffs twice in his 10 year career. Not to mention, off the ice, the guy loves winning more then $$$ (as evidenced by his Oiler snub for Hockeytown, USA).
So, the numbers dont lie. Hossa = #1, Gaborik = #2 and Hemsky = #3. And thats not mention established NHL stars Jarome Iginla, Daniel Alfredsson, Martin St. Louis or up-coming stars Patrick Kane, Corey Perry and Nikolai Zherdev. So please, Sporer, leave your Hemsky love at home, there no place for love in the NHL. Cheers.
-Smith

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